Vuba aha, Bloomberg Businessweek yasohoye inkuru yise “Ari he“ umushoferi”Umutwe?Ati: “Ingingo yerekanye ko ahazaza h’abatwara abapilote ari kure cyane.

Impamvu zatanzwe nizo zikurikira:

Ati: “Gutwara abapilote bitwara amafaranga menshi kandi ikoranabuhanga riratera imbere buhoro;gutwara ibinyabiziga byigengantabwo byanze bikunze bifite umutekano kuruta gutwara abantu;kwiga byimbitse ntibishobora gukemura ibibazo byose byo mu mfuruka, n'ibindi. ”

Amavu n'amavuko ya Bloomberg yabajije ikibazo cyo gutwara abantu batagira abapilote ni uko aho indege igwa yo gutwara abantu itarenze abantu benshi babitekerezaga..Icyakora, Bloomberg yanditse urutonde rwibibazo bimwe na bimwe byerekeranye no gutwara abantu batagira abapilote, ariko ntibyakomeje, kandi byerekana byimazeyo iterambere ryiterambere hamwe nigihe kizaza cyo gutwara abantu.

Ibi birayobya byoroshye.

Icyumvikanyweho mu nganda z’imodoka ni uko gutwara ibinyabiziga ari ibintu bisanzwe bikoreshwa mu bwenge bwa gihanga.Ntabwo Waymo, Baidu, Cruise, nibindi gusa babigizemo uruhare, ariko amasosiyete menshi yimodoka nayo yashyize ahagaragara ingengabihe yo gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga, kandi intego nyamukuru ni ugutwara abashoferi.

Nkumuntu umaze igihe kinini yitegereza umwanya wigenga wo gutwara, Ikigo cya XEV kibona ibi bikurikira:

• Mu mijyi imwe n'imwe yo mu Bushinwa, kubika Robotaxi ukoresheje terefone igendanwa bimaze kuba byiza cyane.
• Hamwe niterambere ryikoranabuhanga, politiki nayo ihora itezimbere.Imijyi imwe n'imwe yagiye ifungura ahantu hagaragara hagamijwe gucuruza ibinyabiziga byigenga.Muri bo, Beijing Yizhuang, Shanghai Jiading na Shenzhen Pingshan babaye ibibuga byigenga byigenga.Shenzhen kandi niwo mujyi wa mbere kwisi washyizeho amategeko yo gutwara L3 yigenga.
• Porogaramu yo gutwara ibinyabiziga ya L4′s yagabanije ubunini kandi yinjira ku isoko ryimodoka zitwara abagenzi.
• Iterambere ryimodoka idafite abadereva naryo ryateje impinduka muri lidar, kwigana, chip ndetse nimodoka ubwayo.

Inyuma yibintu bitandukanye, nubwo hari itandukaniro ryiterambere ryiterambere ryimodoka yigenga hagati yUbushinwa na Reta zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zunzubumwe zamerika.

1. Bloomberg yabajije ati: "gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga biracyari kure"

Banza wumve ibipimo.

Ukurikije ibipimo by’inganda z’Abashinwa n’Abanyamerika, gutwara abantu batagira abapilote biri mu rwego rwo hejuru rwo gutwara ibinyabiziga byikora, byitwa L5 munsi y’Abanyamerika SAE ndetse n’urwego rwa 5 munsi y’ubushinwa bwikora.

Gutwara abapilote ni umwami wa sisitemu, ODD yagenewe gukora mu ntera itagira imipaka, kandi imodoka irigenga rwose.

Noneho tuza ku ngingo ya Bloomberg.

Bloomberg yanditse ibibazo birenga icumi muriyi ngingo kugirango yerekane ko gutwara ibinyabiziga bitazakora.

Ibi bibazo ahanini:

• Biragoye mubuhanga gukora ibumoso butarinzwe;
• Nyuma yo gushora miliyari 100 z'amadolari, haracyari ibinyabiziga bitwara imodoka mu muhanda;
• Icyumvikanyweho mu nganda nuko imodoka zitagira shoferi zitazategereza imyaka mirongo;
• Agaciro ku isoko rya Waymo, isosiyete yigenga itwara ibinyabiziga yigenga, yavuye kuri miliyari 170 $ igera kuri miliyari 30 uyu munsi;
• Iterambere ryabakinnyi batwara ibinyabiziga hakiri kare ZOOX na Uber ntibyari byoroshye;
• Igipimo cyimpanuka ziterwa no gutwara ibinyabiziga cyigenga kirenze icy'abatwara abantu;
• Nta shirwaho ryibipimo byerekana niba imodoka zitagira shoferi zifite umutekano;
• Google.
• Tekinike yimbitse ya mudasobwa ntabwo izi guhangana nimihindagurikire myinshi isanzwe kumuhanda, nk'inuma kumuhanda;
• Imanza zuruhande, cyangwa imfuruka, ntizigira iherezo, kandi biragoye ko mudasobwa ikora neza ibi bintu.

Ibibazo byavuzwe haruguru birashobora gushyirwa mubice bitatu: ikoranabuhanga ntabwo ari ryiza, umutekano ntuhagije, kandi biragoye kubaho mubucuruzi.

Uhereye hanze yinganda, ibi bibazo birashobora gusobanura ko gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga byatakaje ejo hazaza, kandi ntibishoboka ko ushaka gutwara mumodoka yigenga mubuzima bwawe.

Umwanzuro wibanze wa Bloomberg nuko gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga bizagorana kumenyekanisha igihe kirekire.

Mubyukuri, nko muri Werurwe 2018, hari uwabajije Zhihu, ati: "Ubushinwa bushobora kumenyekanisha imodoka zitagira shoferi mu myaka icumi?”

Kuva kubibazo kugeza uyu munsi, burimwaka umuntu azamuka gusubiza ikibazo.Usibye bamwe mu ba injeniyeri ba software hamwe n’abakunda gutwara ibinyabiziga bigenga, hari n’amasosiyete mu nganda z’imodoka nka Momenta na Weimar.Abantu bose batanze ibisubizo bitandukanye, ariko kugeza ubu nta gisubizo kiracyari.Abantu barashobora gutanga igisubizo nyacyo gishingiye kubintu cyangwa logique.

Ikintu kimwe Bloomberg na bamwe mubabajijwe na Zhihu bahurizaho nuko bahangayikishijwe cyane ningorane za tekinike nibindi bibazo bidafite ishingiro, bityo bagahakana iterambere ryiterambere ryimodoka yigenga.

None, gutwara ibinyabiziga birashobora kwamamara?

2. Ubushinwa bwigenga butwara umutekano

Turashaka kubanza gukemura ikibazo cya kabiri cya Bloomberg, niba gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga bifite umutekano.

Kuberako mu nganda zitwara ibinyabiziga, umutekano niyo mbogamizi yambere, kandi niba gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga ari ukwinjira mu nganda z’imodoka, nta buryo bwo kubiganiraho nta mutekano.

None, gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga bifite umutekano?

Hano dukeneye kumvikanisha neza ko gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga, nkibisanzwe bisanzwe mubijyanye nubwenge bwubuhanga, byanze bikunze bizatera impanuka zo mumuhanda kuva izamuka ikura.

Mu buryo nk'ubwo, kumenyekanisha ibikoresho bishya byingendo nkindege na gari ya moshi yihuta nabyo biherekejwe nimpanuka, nigiciro cyiterambere ryikoranabuhanga.

Uyu munsi, gutwara ibinyabiziga byongeye kugarura imodoka, kandi ubwo buhanga bwimpinduramatwara buzabohora abashoferi babantu, kandi ibyo byonyine biratera umutima.

Iterambere rya siyanse n'ikoranabuhanga rizazana impanuka, ariko ntibisobanura ko ibiryo byatereranywe kubera kuniga.Icyo dushobora gukora nukugirango ikoranabuhanga rikomeze gutera imbere, kandi mugihe kimwe, turashobora gutanga urwego rwubwishingizi kuriyi ngaruka.

Nkindorerezi ndende mubijyanye no gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga, Ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi cya XEV cyabonye ko politiki n’inzira z’ubuhanga mu Bushinwa (ubwenge bw’amagare + guhuza ibinyabiziga n’imihanda) bishyira umutekano mu gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga.

Dufashe urugero rwa Beijing Yizhuang, guhera kuri tagisi yo kwikorera hakiri kare hamwe n’umukozi ushinzwe umutekano mu mushoferi mukuru, kugeza ku modoka zigenga zitagira abapilote, umukozi ushinzwe umutekano mu cyicaro gikuru cy’umushoferi yarahagaritswe, kandi n’umushoferi hamwe afite ibikoresho. ushinzwe umutekano na feri.Politiki ni iyo gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga.Yarekuwe intambwe ku yindi.

Impamvu iroroshye cyane.Ubushinwa buri gihe bwibanze ku bantu, kandi inzego za leta, nizo zigenga ibinyabiziga byigenga, ziritonda kugira ngo umutekano w’umuntu uhagarare cyane kandi “ukuboko ku menyo” ku mutekano w’abagenzi.Muri gahunda yo guteza imbere iterambere ry’imodoka yigenga, uturere twose twagiye twisanzura buhoro buhoro kandi turatera imbere kuva ku cyiciro cy’umushoferi mukuru hamwe n’umukozi ushinzwe umutekano, umushoferi hamwe n’umukozi ushinzwe umutekano, kandi nta ushinzwe umutekano mu modoka.

Muri urwo rwego, amasosiyete yigenga atwara ibinyabiziga agomba kubahiriza uburyo bworoshye bwo kugera, kandi ikizamini cyerekana ni ubunini burenze ibyangombwa by’uruhushya rwo gutwara ibinyabiziga.Kurugero, kugirango ubone icyapa cyo mu rwego rwo hejuru T4 mu kizamini cyigenga cyo gutwara, imodoka igomba gutsinda 100% mubizamini 102 byerekana ibizamini.

Ukurikije amakuru nyayo yibikorwa byahantu henshi herekanwa, umutekano wo gutwara ibinyabiziga wigenga ni mwiza cyane kuruta uwutwara abantu.Mubyigisho, gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga bidafite abapilote birashobora gushyirwa mubikorwa.By'umwihariko, Zizhuang Zonstration Zone yateye imbere kurusha Amerika kandi ifite umutekano urenze urwego mpuzamahanga.

Ntabwo tuzi niba gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga muri Amerika bifite umutekano, ariko mu Bushinwa, byemewe gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga.

Nyuma yo gusobanura ibibazo byumutekano, reka turebe ikibazo cyambere cya Bloomberg, tekinoroji yo gutwara ibinyabiziga birashoboka?

3. Ikoranabuhanga ritera imbere muntambwe nto mumazi maremare, nubwo ari kure kandi hafi

Kugirango usuzume niba tekinoroji yo gutwara ibinyabiziga yigenga ikora, biterwa n’uko ikoranabuhanga rikomeje gutera imbere kandi niba rishobora gukemura ibibazo biri aho.

Iterambere ryikoranabuhanga rigaragara bwa mbere muburyo bwo guhindura imiterere yimodoka.

Uhereye kubanza kugura kwinshi kwa Dajielong na Lincoln Mkzibinyabiziga byamasosiyete yikorera nka Waymo, no kuvugurura nyuma yo kwishyiriraho, kubufatanye namasosiyete yimodoka mugutwara ibicuruzwa byinshi imbere, kandi uyumunsi, Baidu yatangiye gukora ibinyabiziga byeguriwe tagisi yigenga.Ubwoko bwa nyuma bwimodoka zitagira abapilote hamwe nimodoka zitwara-bigenda bigaragara buhoro buhoro.

Ikoranabuhanga rigaragarira kandi niba rishobora gukemura ibibazo mu bihe byinshi.

Kugeza ubu, iterambere ry’ikoranabuhanga ryigenga ryinjira mu mazi maremare.

Ibisobanuro by'ahantu h'amazi maremareni cyane cyane urwego rwa tekiniki rutangira guhangana nibintu byinshi bigoye.Nimihanda yo mumijyi, classique classique idakingiwe ikibazo cyibumoso, nibindi.Mubyongeyeho, hazaba ibibazo byinshi bigoye.

Ibi byakwirakwije ibyihebe byinganda zose, bifatanije n’ibidukikije bigoye byo hanze, amaherezo biganisha ku itumba ry’imari.Ibirori bihagarariwe cyane ni ukugenda kwabayobozi ba Waymo nihindagurika ryagaciro.Itanga igitekerezo cyuko gutwara ibinyabiziga byinjiye mu nkono.

Mubyukuri, umukinnyi mukuru ntabwo yahagaze.

Ku numa nibindi bibazo byavuzwe na Bloomberg mu kiganiro.Mubyukuri,cones, inyamaswa, hamwe n’ibumoso ni ibisanzwe byerekana imihanda yo mu mijyi mu Bushinwa, kandi imodoka ya Baidu yikorera ubwayo nta kibazo ifite cyo gukemura aya mashusho.

Igisubizo cya Baidu nugukoresha icyerekezo na lidar fusion algorithms kugirango umenye neza imbere yimbogamizi nke nka cones ninyamaswa nto.Urugero rufatika cyane ni uko iyo utwaye imodoka ya Baidu yikorera wenyine, ibitangazamakuru bimwe na bimwe byahuye n’aho imodoka yikorera yikaraga amashami kumuhanda.

Bloomberg yavuze kandi ko ibirometero Google itwara ibinyabiziga bidashobora kwerekana ko bifite umutekano kurusha abashoferi b'abantu.

Mubyukuri, ingaruka yikizamini cyurubanza rumwe ikora ntishobora gusobanura ikibazo, ariko imikorere yikigereranyo hamwe nibisubizo byikizamini birahagije kugirango bigaragaze ubushobozi rusange bwo gutwara bwikora.Kugeza ubu, ibirometero byose byakozwe na Baidu Apollo ikizamini cyigenga cyo gutwara ibinyabiziga cyarenze kilometero 36, naho umubare w’ibicuruzwa urenga miliyoni.Kuri iki cyiciro, itangwa rya Apollo yigenga itwara mumihanda igoye yo mumijyi irashobora kugera kuri 99,99%.

Mu rwego rwo guhangana n’imikoranire hagati y’abapolisi n’abapolisi, imodoka za Baidu zitagira abapilote nazo zifite ibinyabiziga bitwara ibicu 5G, bishobora gukurikiza ubuyobozi bwa polisi yo mu muhanda binyuze mu gutwara ibinyabiziga.

Tekinoroji yo gutwara ibinyabiziga yigenga ihora itera imbere.

Hanyuma, iterambere ryikoranabuhanga rigaragarira no kongera umutekano.

Waymo yagize ati: "Umushoferi wa AI ashobora kwirinda 75% by'impanuka kandi akagabanya ibikomere bikomeye ku kigero cya 93%, mu gihe mu bihe byiza, icyitegererezo cy’abashoferi gishobora kwirinda gusa 62.5% by’impanuka kandi kugabanya 84% byakomeretse bikabije."

Tesla'sIgipimo cyimpanuka ya Autopilot nacyo kiragabanuka.

Raporo y’umutekano yashyizwe ahagaragara na Tesla, mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2018, impuzandengo yo mu muhanda yagaragaye kuri kilometero miliyoni 2.91 zakozwe mu gihe cyo gutwara ibinyabiziga bifite Autopilot.Mu gihembwe cya kane cya 2021, habaye impuzandengo yo kugongana kuri kilometero miliyoni 4.31 zitwarwa na Autopilot.

Ibi birerekana ko sisitemu ya Autopilot igenda iba myiza kandi nziza.

Ubwinshi bwikoranabuhanga bugena ko gutwara ibinyabiziga bidashobora kugerwaho nijoro, ariko ntabwo ari ngombwa gukoresha ibintu bito kugirango uhakane inzira nini kandi uririmbe buhumyi.

Uyu munsi gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga ntibishobora kuba bifite ubwenge buhagije, ariko gutera intambwe nto ni kure.

4. Gutwara abapilote birashobora kugerwaho, kandi ibishashi amaherezo bizatangira umuriro wa prairie

Hanyuma, ingingo ya Bloomberg ivuga ko nyuma yo gutwika miliyari 100 z'amadolari bizatinda, kandi ko gutwara ibinyabiziga bizatwara imyaka mirongo.

Ikoranabuhanga rikemura ibibazo kuva 0 kugeza 1.Ubucuruzi bukemura ibibazo kuva 1 kugeza 10 kugeza 100.Ubucuruzi bushobora nanone kumvikana nkurumuri.

Twabonye ko mugihe abakinnyi bakomeye bahora basubiramo tekinoloji yabo, barimo no gukora ibikorwa byubucuruzi.

Kugeza ubu, ahantu h'ingenzi hagwa indege idafite abapilote ni Robotaxi.Usibye gukuraho abashinzwe umutekano no kuzigama ibiciro by'abashoferi b'abantu, ibigo bitwara ibinyabiziga nabyo bigabanya ibiciro by'imodoka.

Baidu Apollo iri ku isonga, yakomeje kugabanya igiciro cy’imodoka zitagira abapilote kugeza igihe yasohoye imodoka itagira abapilote RT6 muri uyu mwaka, kandi igiciro cyamanutse kiva ku 480.000 mu gisekuru cyabanjirije kigera ku 250.000.

Intego ni ukwinjira mumasoko yingendo, guhindura imikorere yubucuruzi bwa tagisi no gutwara imodoka kumurongo.

Mubyukuri, tagisi na serivisi zo gutwara imodoka kumurongo bikoresha abakoresha C-end kuruhande rumwe, kandi bigatera inkunga abashoferi, amasosiyete atwara tagisi hamwe na platform kurundi ruhande, byemejwe nkicyitegererezo cyubucuruzi.Urebye amarushanwa yubucuruzi, mugihe ikiguzi cya Robotaxi, kidasaba abashoferi, kiri hasi bihagije, gifite umutekano uhagije, kandi igipimo ni kinini bihagije, ingaruka zayo zo gutwara isoko zirakomeye kuruta za tagisi no gutwara imodoka kumurongo.

Waymo nayo irakora ibintu bisa.Mu mpera za 2021, yageze ku bufatanye na Ji Krypton, izatanga amato adafite umushoferi kugira ngo atange ibinyabiziga byihariye.

Uburyo bwinshi bwo gucuruza nabwo burimo kugaragara, kandi bamwe mubakinnyi bakomeye bakorana namasosiyete yimodoka.

Dufashe Baidu nk'urugero, ibicuruzwa byayo byaparitse AVP byakozwe cyane kandi bitangwa muri WM Motor W6, Urukuta runiniIcyitegererezo cy’umutekano wa Haval, GAC muri Egiputa, hamwe n’ibicuruzwa bya Pilote bifasha gutwara ibinyabiziga ANP byagejejwe kuri WM Motor mu mpera za Kamena uyu mwaka.

Kugeza mu gihembwe cya mbere cy'uyu mwaka, Baidu Apollo yagurishije yose yarengeje miliyari 10, kandi Baidu yatangaje ko iri terambere ryatewe ahanini n'umuyoboro wo kugurisha w'imodoka nini.

Kugabanya ibiciro, kwinjira murwego rwibikorwa byubucuruzi, cyangwa kugabanya ibipimo no gukorana namasosiyete yimodoka, ibi nibyo shingiro ryogutwara abapilote.

Mubyigisho, umuntu wese ushobora kugabanya ibiciro byihuse arashobora kuzana Robotaxi kumasoko.Ukurikije ubushakashatsi bwakozwe nabakinnyi bakomeye nka Baidu Apollo, ibi bifite ubucuruzi bushoboka.

Mu Bushinwa, amasosiyete y’ikoranabuhanga ntabwo akina umuntu umwe ku murongo utagira umushoferi, kandi politiki nayo irabaherekeza byimazeyo.

Agace k’ibizamini byo gutwara ibinyabiziga mu mijyi yo mu cyiciro cya mbere nka Beijing, Shanghai na Guangzhou byatangiye gukora.

Imijyi yo mu gihugu nka Chongqing, Wuhan, na Hebei nayo irimo gukoresha cyane ibizamini byo gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga.Kuberako bari mumadirishya yamarushanwa yinganda, iyi mijyi yimbere ntabwo iri munsi yimijyi yo mucyiciro cya mbere mubijyanye nimbaraga za politiki no guhanga udushya.

Iyi politiki kandi yateye intambwe y'ingenzi, nk'amategeko ya Shenzhen kuri L3, n'ibindi, ateganya uburyozwacyaha bw'impanuka zo mu muhanda mu nzego zitandukanye.

Kumenyekanisha kwabakoresha no kwakira ibinyabiziga byigenga biriyongera.Hashingiwe kuri ibi, kwemerera gutwara ibinyabiziga bifashwa biriyongera, kandi amasosiyete yimodoka yo mubushinwa nayo aha abakoresha abapilote bo mumijyi bafashwa gutwara.

Ibi byose byavuzwe haruguru bifasha mugukwirakwiza ibinyabiziga bidafite abadereva.

Kuva Minisiteri y’ingabo z’Amerika yatangije gahunda ya ALV y’ubutaka bwikora mu 1983, kandi kuva icyo gihe, Google, Baidu, Cruise, Uber, Tesla, n’ibindi byinjiye muri iyo nzira.Uyu munsi, nubwo ibinyabiziga bitagira abapilote bitaramenyekana cyane, gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga.Intambwe ku yindi igana ku bwihindurize bwa nyuma bwo gutwara abantu.

Mu nzira, umurwa mukuru uzwi wateraniye hano.

Kugeza ubu, birahagije ko hari ibigo byubucuruzi byiteguye kugerageza nabashoramari babishyigikira munzira.

Serivise ikora neza ninzira yingendo zabantu, kandi biramutse binaniwe, mubisanzwe izareka.Dusubiye inyuma, ubwihindurize ubwo aribwo bwose bwabantu bisaba abapayiniya kugerageza.Noneho ibigo bimwe byubucuruzi byigenga byigenga bifuza gukoresha ikoranabuhanga kugirango duhindure isi, icyo dushobora gukora ni ugutanga umwanya muto.

Urashobora kuba ubaza, bizatwara igihe kingana iki kugirango ibinyabiziga byigenga bigere?

Ntidushobora gutanga ingingo isobanutse mugihe.

Ariko, hari raporo zimwe ziboneka kugirango zerekanwe.

Muri kamena uyu mwaka, KPMG yasohoye raporo ya “2021 ku Isi Y’inganda Y’inganda ku Isi”, yerekana ko 64% by'abayobozi bemeza ko imodoka zitwara ibinyabiziga bitwara ibinyabiziga bitwara abagenzi ndetse n’ibicuruzwa byihuta bizagurishwa mu mijyi minini y'Ubushinwa mu 2030.

By'umwihariko, mu 2025, gutwara ibinyabiziga byo mu rwego rwo hejuru bizashyirwa ku isoko mu bihe byihariye, kandi kugurisha imodoka zifite ibikoresho byo gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga cyangwa bisabwa bizaba birenga 50% by'imodoka zose zagurishijwe;muri 2030, urwego rwohejuru rwo gutwara ibinyabiziga ruzaba ruri Byakoreshejwe cyane mumihanda minini no murwego runini mumihanda imwe n'imwe;muri 2035, gutwara ibinyabiziga byo mu rwego rwo hejuru bizakoreshwa cyane mu bice byinshi by'Ubushinwa.

Muri rusange, iterambere ryimodoka zitagira abapilote ntabwo ryihebye nkuko biri mu ngingo ya Bloomberg.Turashaka cyane kwizera ko amaherezo ibishashi bizatangira umuriro wa prairie, kandi ikoranabuhanga amaherezo rizahindura isi.